Monday, May 14, 2018

My Dilemma with Tesla; TSLA

At a $50B market cap (as big as GM and Ford, but at less than one-tenth the revenue) with current liabilities at 3.25x their cash and operating losses at $600M per quarter, Tesla ($TSLA) seems like a classic overvalued short play that is badly in need of cash.  I would guess that the odds of a company in this situation being able to maintain itself as a "going concern" without significant equity dilution or taking on additional debt at significantly worsening terms, are pretty thin.  The confounding issue is, Tesla overcame what I would have to believe are far more difficult odds in accomplishing all it has thusfar. 

This cult favorite, with the largest short position of any in the US stock market, has its supporters and detractors firmly entrenched.  It 's story has now drawn me in, like a good soap opera.  I really want to root for Elon Musk, but every way that I look at their financial statements and position tells me that a fall in Tesla shareprice is not "if", but "when".

With the shareprice at $300 I am scaling into a long-term 400/175 short strangle taking advantage of the high $25 premiums; expecting that bulls and bears will keep the shareprice in this range until my year-end expiration. 

Here is the spreadsheet I've put together thusfar of Tesla's key financial metrics:



And the P&L of each single short strangle mentioned above:






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